Deepseek and OpenAI is Just the Tip of an Iceberg
The Iceberg Model of AI Development
AI, much like other transformative technologies, does not develop in isolation. What we see—the outputs of AI models, advancements, and regulations—is merely the tip of the iceberg. Beneath the surface, deeper patterns, policies, and ideologies are driving the trajectory of AI, shaping how nations invest in, control, and apply the technology.
1. The Tip of the Iceberg: AI Outputs, Behaviors, and Events (What we see as a result)
AI breakthroughs and capabilities (e.g., Deepseek outperforming OpenAI, GPT advancements)
U.S. sanctions on China’s semiconductor industry
AI regulations tightening in different countries
Public debates on AI safety and ethics
These are the immediate, observable results of deeper forces at play. They seem like isolated events, but they are actually symptoms of underlying trends, policies, and ideological battles.
2. Below the Surface: Patterns & Trends (The Forces Shaping AI Development)
Global AI competition: U.S. vs. China racing for dominance
Trade restrictions & policies: U.S. bans China from accessing advanced GPUs or domestic use of applications
Investment trends: China pouring billions into domestic AI research, AI-first policies in state-backed industries
Perceptions of AI: Western concerns over AI ethics and bias, China’s focus on AI for surveillance and governance
These patterns are driven by national attitudes toward AI—whether AI is seen primarily as an economic driver, a security asset, or a tool of governance.
3. The Deepest Level: Mental Models, Values, and Ideologies (The Foundation of AI Development)
Democratic vs. authoritarian values:
The U.S. and Western nations tend to see AI as a market-driven innovation, with ethical concerns around privacy, data usage, and corporate accountability.
China views AI as a state-controlled asset, emphasizing centralized AI governance, surveillance capabilities, and economic dominance.
Views on innovation & competition:
In the U.S., innovation is largely private-sector driven, with companies like OpenAI, Google, and Microsoft leading AI research.
In China, AI is a government-backed strategic priority, integrated into national security and economic policies.
Issues of intellectual property theft as a media narrative for attention will cause biased views and distractions that can obstruct US private sector efforts to use, develop and invest in novel applications for domestic consumption.
AI’s role in society:
Some nations see AI as a co-pilot for human progress (e.g., AI for education, medicine, automation).
Others see AI as a strategic weapon for economic control, information warfare, and national security.
These foundational mental models drive AI policies, investments, and regulations, which in turn shape AI outputs and competition at the top of the iceberg.
How This Model Predicts AI’s Future
Using the Iceberg Model, we can predict AI’s evolution under geopolitical stress:
U.S.-China AI Competition Will Escalate – Deepseek’s breakthrough suggests China has moved past imitation into true AI innovation. If China can build advanced AI without Western GPUs, the AI arms race will only intensify.
Governments Will Take a Stronger Role in AI – As AI becomes more geopolitically sensitive, we’ll see more government intervention, shaping AI regulations, funding, and ethical considerations.
Ideological Divides Will Shape AI Ethics & Governance – AI trained in a democratic framework will prioritize privacy, fairness, and accountability. AI trained in an authoritarian framework may prioritize efficiency, surveillance, and control. These values will shape the future AI outputs and its applications for business or consumer use.
New AI Power Blocs Will Form – Just like the Cold War created U.S. and Soviet technology spheres, AI will likely divide into Western AI (U.S., EU, Japan, India) vs. Eastern AI (China, Russia, emerging nations).
AI Will Increase the Costs of Doing Business – while AI will bring efficiencies of output, the strain of AI regulation and its policies will likely increase costs in other functional areas like trade, security, supply chains, and marketing.
AI Will eventually be an Invisible Technology – The Intel Inside strategy was one of the most successful programs in tech history. We predict that the media polarization of AI will push companies to disclose what their product contains, such as DeepSeek Inside or OpenAI inside. This strategy will drive preference in the consumer market.
Conclusion: AI is a Reflection of its Creators
The Iceberg Model reveals that AI is not just a neutral technology—it is shaped by the historical, political, and ideological structures of the nations that develop it. The U.S. and China’s competing mental models—one based on private-sector innovation, the other on state-driven control—are driving the AI race forward. Ultimately, the AI that emerges will reflect the values of the societies that create it. This will impact the capabilities of AI and its outputs. So which one is going to be better? Only time will tell.
The real battle for AI is not just about who builds the most powerful model, but who controls the deeper forces shaping AI’s future—the patterns of investment, policies, and beliefs that dictate how AI is developed, used, and governed.